4.
Process Modeling
4.4.
Data Analysis for Process Modeling
4.4.3.
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How are estimates of the unknown parameters obtained?
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Parameter Estimation in General
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After selecting the basic form of the functional part of the model, the next
step in the model-building process is estimation of the unknown parameters in
the function. In general this is accomplished by solving an optimization
problem in which the objective function (the function being minimized or
maximized) relates the response variable and the functional part of the model
containing the unknown parameters in a way that will produce parameters
estimates that will be close to the true, unknown parameter values. The
unknown parameters are treated as variables to be solved for in the
optimization and the data serve as known coefficients of the objective function
in this stage of the modeling process.
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In theory there are as many different ways of estimating parameters as
there are objective functions to be minimized or maximized. However, a few
principles have dominated because they result in parameter estimates that have
good statistical properties. The two major methods of parameter estimation
for process models are maximum likelihood and least squares. Both of these
methods have provide parameter estimates that have many good properties.
Both maximum likelihood and least squares are sensitive to the presence of
outliers, however. There are also many newer methods for parameter estimation,
called robust methods, that try to balance the efficiency and desirable
properties of least squares and maximum likelihood with a lower sensitivity
to outliers.
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Overview of Section 4.3
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Although robust techniques are valuable, they are less well developed than the
more traditional methods and often require specialized software that is not
readily available. Maximum likelihood also requires specialized algorithms in
general, although there are important special cases which do not. For example,
for data with normally distributed random errors, the least squares and maximum
likelihood parameter estimates are identical. As a result of these software
and developmental issues, and the coincidence of maximum likelihood and least
squares in many applications, this section currently focuses on parameter
estimation only by least squares methods. The remainder of this section
offers some intuition into how least squares methods work and illustrates
the effectiveness of this method.
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Contents of Section 4.3
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- Least Sum of Squares
- Weighted Least Sum of Squares
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